Predicting Young Adults’ Fertility Preferences: Individual, Relational, and Family-of-Origin Influences

Declining fertility rates in the United States have increased interest in the factors shaping young adults’ fertility intentions. Guided by a life course perspective, this study examined how individual characteristics, relationship orientations, and family-of-origin dynamics are associated with the preferences young adults have for their ideal number of children. Using survey data from 1,139 unmarried U.S. adults ages 18–30, multinomial logistic regression models compared preferences for no children, one child, or multiple children. Results indicated that sibling experiences were among the strongest predictors of fertility intentions. Relative to only children, individuals with one or multiple siblings were substantially more likely to prefer either childlessness or multiple children rather than a single child. Parental centrality also differentiated fertility preferences. Findings highlight the complex role of sibling experience and socialization in shaping contemporary fertility ideals including how these factors may contribute to polarized fertility intentions among young adults.