LAB #1829 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: ETHUSD SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.9% to 80. — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: ETHUSD SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.9% to 80.0% (+48.1pp, n=5) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ETHUSD SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 6 conf filter would have zero effect on the current live window — none of the 10 listed trades are ETHUSD, and the filter is instrument-specific. The claimed +48.1pp win-rate improvement (n=5) is statistically meaningless; with 5 samples, the 95% confidence interval spans roughly 28% to 99%, so the true effect could be anywhere from a large loss to a near-perfect win rate. No PnL delta would occur in this window, and the filter would not have prevented or altered any of the XAUUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, or NZDUSD trades. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would likely produce a small positive or neutral effect if the 6-conf threshold genuinely selects for high-probability ETHUSD shorts at NY open, but the risk is seve Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com