A Data–Physics Dual-Driven Intelligent Diagnostic Method for Downhole Drilling Risks

Safe drilling in hydrate-bearing sediments is essential for environmentally responsible natural gas hydrate development. Complex pressure variations, fluid migration, and mechanical disturbances during drilling may increase the risks of gas influx, lost circulation, pipe sticking, and wellbore instability. To improve diagnostic robustness under heterogeneous and noisy drilling conditions while reducing dependence on large-scale manually labeled datasets, this study develops an adaptively coupled data–physics dual-driven diagnostic framework based on a self-organizing map (SOM) and a competitive classifier. Unlike a conventional one-way SOM–classifier cascade, changes in the downstream classification loss are fed back to adjust the SOM neighborhood radius, thereby coupling unsupervised feature mapping with supervised risk classification. In addition, class-conditional pressure-window and torque–drag consistency penalties are linked to the predicted class probabilities so that physical information directly participates in the optimization of applicable fluid-related and pipe-sticking risk predictions. Risk categories without an explicitly available physical residual remain primarily data-driven. Experiments on a hybrid measured–simulated dataset show that the proposed model achieves a test-set accuracy of 97.67%, outperforming representative baseline models. When 20% Gaussian noise is added, the accuracy decreases by only 4.20 percentage points. A three-layer data acquisition–edge-computing–cloud-monitoring early-warning system is implemented through MATLAB/VC integration. In a pilot field trial, a representative well-kick risk was identified 12 min earlier than by a conventional threshold-based alarm, and the missed-alarm rate decreased from 15% to 3%. The proposed method provides an engineering-oriented framework for improving drilling safety and environmental risk control during natural gas hydrate development.