The Balbi operational model, a simplified physical model for surface fires spread. Part II – model parameterisation and evaluation

Background The ‘Balbi model’ is a simplified physical model for surface fires which provides the main physical characteristics of a fire front and its rate of spread (ROS) as a function of general environmental conditions. In the first part of this work, we describe a simplification of this model, which we call Balbi operational model, that leads to a set of explicit algebraic equations. Aims After calibrating the model, we aim to assess its performance by comparing the predicted ROS with laboratory- and field-measured ROS. Methods A small set (n = 40) of laboratory fires was used to find the required model parameters. We evaluated the model against (1) a set of laboratory experimental fires (n = 549), representing a range of fuel bed types and arrangements, and (2) a set of shrubland and grassland field fires (n = 357) from different world regions. We assessed the predictive capacity of the model and compared it with other empirical and semi-empirical models. An analysis on the importance of each heat transfer mechanism is performed. Key results The proposed model performs as well as its previous iteration on shrubland fires and is found to increase accuracy when tested against grassland fires. Conclusions The operational ‘Balbi model’ shares many properties with empirical models, while grounded on physical heat transfer principles. The model is suitable for application to several types of fuels and configurations of slope and wind. Implications Its intrinsic characteristics and verified fit make it a candidate to be used in wildfire propagation simulators.