Financial Resilience Under Conflict: Access, Use, and Financial Disruption in Sub-Saharan Africa

Armed conflict threatens financial resilience by weakening the infrastructure, liquidity, information, and repayment conditions on which financial intermediation depends. This study examines whether state-based and non-state conflict affect financial access and use differently across 33 Sub-Saharan African countries. We merge Global Findex 2025 data for 32,951 adults with Uppsala Conflict Data Program fatalities and GSMA mobile money regulatory indicators. Multilevel mixed-effects logit models show that a one-standard-deviation increase in state-based conflict intensity is associated with 3.2 and 1.3 percentage point reductions in formal financial-institution and any-account ownership. State-based conflict is also associated with lower borrowing, domestic remittances, utility payments, and transfer receipt. Non-state conflict produces smaller reductions in formal account ownership, borrowing, remittances, and utility payments. Predicted margins show nonlinear vulnerability, especially for remittances as state-based conflict intensifies. Saving, pensions, and wages are comparatively resilient. The findings connect household financial resilience to banking stability and credit risk by showing how conflict simultaneously weakens transaction continuity and the conditions supporting credit supply. Policy should prioritize payment continuity, agent liquidity, credit-risk management, and resilient financial infrastructure in conflict-exposed emerging markets.