Relationship Between Number of Acute Pancreatitis Episodes and Risk of New-onset Diabetes in the U.S.: A Real-world Data Analysis

INTRODUCTION: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common inflammatory disorder that is associated with increased risk for diabetes mellitus (DM). It remains unclear whether recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) is associated with further increased risk of incident DM. This study aims to investigate the association between RAP and incident DM using real-world data. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the MerativeTM MarketScan® claims database (2016-2023), identifying patients with AP and no prior history of DM at baseline. The primary exposure of interest, RAP, was defined as one or more episodes of AP occurring ≥90 days after the index AP diagnosis, whereas one episode of AP referred to a single episode of AP (SAP) with no subsequent recurrence within 90 days following the index event. A multivariable stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine the association between RAP and incident DM, identified using ICD-10 codes. RESULTS: In total, 16,184 individuals with AP (mean [SD] age: 45.8 [12.3]) contributed 40,712 person-years of follow-up, during which 1,477 incident cases of DM were documented. Individuals with RAP had an increased risk of incident DM compared with those with a SAP(adjusted HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.61-2.29). The risk increased significantly with the frequency of RAP. In comparing the modifying effect of patient demographics and comorbidities, a stronger association between RAP and incident DM was observed in females (adjusted HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.87-3.19) than in males (adjusted HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.30-2.07; Pinteraction=0.03). Also, stronger associations were observed among younger patients (18-46 y) (adjusted HR=2.56; 95% CI, 1.97-3.31) and among non-tobacco abuse (adjusted HR=2.19; 95% CI, 1.81-2.65), with significant interactions for all comparisons (Pinteraction<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world study, RAP was associated with an increased risk of incident DM. Our findings highlight an opportunity for glycemic monitoring and proactive management of patients with RAP to mitigate their risk of developing DM.