Does the Power-Law Advantage in the Tails Outweigh the Global q-Gaussian Description?

Financial markets are complex systems whose return distributions exhibit heavy tails, traditionally described by power laws. An alternative framework based on Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics allows both the central region and the tails of the distribution to be represented by a single q-Gaussian functional form. In this work, we systematically compare these two descriptions across different time scales, considering stock markets from Brazil and the United States, as well as traditional assets and cryptocurrencies. The q-Gaussian parameters are estimated using the method of moments ratio, whereas the power-law parameters are obtained by maximum likelihood estimation in the asymptotic region. The quality of the fits is assessed using goodness-of-fit measures, bootstrap resampling, and the Vuong test. When the analysis is restricted exclusively to the extreme tails, the power law generally provides a better description, as expected from the asymptotic power-law behavior of the q-Gaussian itself. However, this superiority is not sufficiently pronounced to outweigh the main advantage of the q-Gaussian: its ability to provide a consistent description of the entire distribution, including the central peak, bulk, and tails, over all investigated time scales. Moreover, the evolution of the parameter q offers a simple and direct characterization of aggregational Gaussianity and of the transition between heavy- and short-tailed statistical regimes, without requiring separate fits for different regions of the distribution. These results indicate that, although the power law remains particularly suitable for describing extreme events, the q-Gaussian provides a broader and more practical framework for characterizing the statistical evolution of financial returns.

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Publication Details

Journal
Entropy
Published
2026-10-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/e28111190
Primary Topic
Statistical Mechanics and Entropy
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Does the Power-Law Advantage in the Tails Outweigh the Global q-Gaussian Description?

Roberto da Silva, J. Roberto Iglesias, Joao Carlos Schmitt de Siqueira, Eduardo Boor
Entropy
Statistical Mechanics and Entropy
article

Does the Power-Law Advantage in the Tails Outweigh the Global q-Gaussian Description?

Roberto da Silva, J. Roberto Iglesias, Joao Carlos Schmitt de Siqueira, Eduardo Boor
article en

Abstract

Financial markets are complex systems whose return distributions exhibit heavy tails, traditionally described by power laws. An alternative framework based on Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics allows both the central region and the tails of the distribution to be represented by a single q-Gaussian functional form. In this work, we systematically compare these two descriptions across different time scales, considering stock markets from Brazil and the United States, as well as traditional assets and cryptocurrencies. The q-Gaussian parameters are estimated using the method of moments ratio, whereas the power-law parameters are obtained by maximum likelihood estimation in the asymptotic region. The quality of the fits is assessed using goodness-of-fit measures, bootstrap resampling, and the Vuong test. When the analysis is restricted exclusively to the extreme tails, the power law generally provides a better description, as expected from the asymptotic power-law behavior of the q-Gaussian itself. However, this superiority is not sufficiently pronounced to outweigh the main advantage of the q-Gaussian: its ability to provide a consistent description of the entire distribution, including the central peak, bulk, and tails, over all investigated time scales. Moreover, the evolution of the parameter q offers a simple and direct characterization of aggregational Gaussianity and of the transition between heavy- and short-tailed statistical regimes, without requiring separate fits for different regions of the distribution. These results indicate that, although the power law remains particularly suitable for describing extreme events, the q-Gaussian provides a broader and more practical framework for characterizing the statistical evolution of financial returns.

EntropyVol. 28(11)
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (BR)
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul
Openalex Percentile: Top 32%
Statistical Mechanics and Entropy
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