UNPACKING BLOCKCHAIN ADOPTION INTENTION AMONG SMEs UNDER INSTITUTIONAL VOIDS: AN EXTENDED DOI-TOE FRAMEWORK WITH ORDERED PROBIT EVIDENCE FROM MOROCCO

Abstract Despite the transformative potential of blockchain for SMEs, empirical adoption remains limited in emerging-market economies, where institutional uncertainty may constrain the translation of perceived innovation attributes into adoption decisions. This study examines the technological, organizational, and environmental determinants of blockchain adoption intention among Moroccan SMEs and investigates whether institutional conditions shape the effectiveness of classical innovation-diffusion mechanisms. Drawing on Diffusion of Innovations (DOI) theory and complemented by the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework, we surveyed 306 SMEs across Morocco's 12 regions. Using multi-item measures and a maximum-likelihood Ordered Probit model with marginal effects, the study finds that perceived complexity, cost, and risk significantly reduce adoption intention, whereas compatibility, trialability, financial slack, and regulatory trust increase it. In contrast, observability is not significantly associated with adoption intention. An exploratory interaction analysis, however, indicates that the relationship between observability and adoption becomes positive when regulatory trust is high. These findings suggest that the effects of DOI attributes may be institutionally contingent rather than universal: visibility of successful innovation does not necessarily translate into adoption when firms lack confidence in the institutional environment surrounding the technology. The study therefore extends blockchain adoption research by positioning institutional conditions as a potential boundary condition of DOI mechanisms and provides policy implications for strengthening regulatory trust, experimentation opportunities, and SME digital capabilities in Morocco. JEL Codes: O33, O55, L26, M15