Firm renewable microgrids enabled by space solar power: A system dynamics assessment of wireless transmission, storage displacement, and baseload decarbonization

Deep decarbonization of electricity systems is constrained not only by the cost of energy generation but also by the cost of reliability. Variable terrestrial solar and wind resources require storage, overbuild, and reserve capacity when they supply most electricity demand. Space solar power (SSP), delivered to terrestrial rectennas through wireless power transmission, offers a high-capacity-factor source of firm zero-carbon electricity that may change this system-level trade-off. This study develops a global system dynamics model that links SSP deployment, technology learning, regional renewable microgrid expansion, storage requirements, carbon constraints, and reduced-form dispatch from 2020 to 2060. Ten macro-regions are simulated under four scenarios: no SSP, early SSP introduction in 2035, delayed SSP introduction in 2045, and early SSP with accelerated learning. The model indicates that 215 GW of SSP by 2050 in the Early SSP scenario supplies 14.2% of global electricity while reducing battery energy requirements from 18.2 TWh to 10.5 TWh relative to the no-SSP pathway. The global average levelized cost of electricity falls from 48 to 41 USD/MWh in 2050, and residual power-sector CO2 emissions decline from 0.8 to 0.2 Gt/yr. Sensitivity analysis shows that SSP learning rate and end-to-end wireless transmission efficiency dominate adoption outcomes. The results suggest that SSP is best evaluated as a firm-capacity complement to terrestrial renewables rather than as a stand-alone replacement technology.