Genetically Predicted Gene Expression and Circulating Metabolites Associated with Cervical High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesion: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background: High-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) is a precancerous condition of the cervix. Identifying risk factors associated with HSIL and understanding their potential mechanisms may inform prevention strategies. This study aimed to investigate the associations of genetically predicted gene expression and circulating metabolites with HSIL risk using Mendelian randomization (MR). Methods: We performed two-sample MR analysis to evaluate the associations of genetically predicted gene expression (eQTLGen consortium, N=31,684) and circulating metabolites (genome-wide association study [GWAS], N=8,299) with HSIL risk (FinnGen R12, N=293,218; 8,291 cases). Mediation analysis was conducted to explore whether metabolites might mediate the associations between genes and HSIL. Sensitivity analyses, including Mendelian randomization pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO), leave-one-out, and colocalization, were performed to assess the robustness of the findings. All GWAS data used in this study were derived from European-ancestry populations. Results: Eleven genes showed significant associations with HSIL after false discovery rate (FDR) correction (q< 0.05), including VWA7, PAX8, GUSBP1, IKZF3, PAX8-AS1, NFKBIL1 (interpret with caution due to an influential single nucleotide polymorphism [SNP]), ERBB2, COL11A2, SKIV2L, TCF19, and PGAP3. Eleven circulating metabolites were also significantly associated with HSIL. Mediation analysis suggested that two phospholipid metabolites (GCST90200685 and GCST90200692) might mediate a small proportion of the total protective association of COL11A2 with HSIL (1.46% and 1.45%, respectively), indicating that the protective association of COL11A2 is largely independent of these circulating metabolites. Colocalization analysis showed strong evidence of shared causal variants for eight genes (PP.H4> 0.98), while COL11A2 showed weak evidence of colocalization (PP.H4=1.58× 10 − 15 ). Functional enrichment analysis indicated that COL11A2-related genes were enriched in extracellular matrix (ECM)-receptor interaction and PI3K-Akt signaling pathways. Conclusion: This MR study identified 11 genes and 11 circulating metabolites associated with HSIL risk. Among these, COL11A2 showed a protective association that appeared to be largely independent of circulating phospholipid metabolites, suggesting potential local mechanisms. These findings provide genetic and metabolic clues for future studies on HSIL etiology. Keywords: Mendelian randomization, cervical HSIL, COL11A2, circulating metabolites, mediation analysis