Carbon neutrality strategies modulate air quality effects on solar power generation

Abstract Solar photovoltaic power is essential for achieving carbon neutrality, yet its output is highly sensitive to changes in air quality under future emission pathways. We integrate energy–economy, coupled meteorology–chemistry, and photovoltaic performance models to quantify how alternative carbon-neutrality pathways influence solar power generation via air quality changes in China. Here we show that a pathway emphasizing renewable-energy deployment yields the greatest air-quality improvements, boosting annual photovoltaic power generation by 57,526 ± 10,314 gigawatt-hours (GWh) relative to business-as-usual, equivalent to economic gains of US$5.18 ± 0.93 billion by 2060. These gains are driven primarily by aerosol–cloud interactions rather than aerosol–radiation interactions. In contrast, pathways relying on biomass or carbon capture achieve only about one-third of these gains. The largest gains occur in eastern and southern China, where electricity demand is highest. These findings highlight the importance of co-optimizing decarbonization and air-pollution mitigation to maximize the renewable energy benefits of carbon-neutrality strategies.