Perceived Worth of Higher Education Under Scarcity: Evidence from Students in Guinea-Bissau

Research increasingly examines initial access to higher education (HE) in sub-Saharan Africa, yet less is known about the persistence of enrolled students in fragile contexts where costs are high and outcomes are uncertain. This study provides the first large-scale quantitative analysis of perceived HE worth in Guinea-Bissau, a resource-scarce Lusophone state. Drawing on Human Capital Investment (HCI), Behavioural Economics (BE), and Afrocentric perspectives on resilience and hope, we analysed survey data from 2255 students across six HE institutions (HEIs). A binary indicator of whether HE was worth the cost was used to assess ongoing valuation, and the data were analysed using sequential block-entry logistic regression after multiple imputation. Overall, 30.1% of students did not affirm that HE was worth the cost, indicating that enrolment does not guarantee sustained valuation. While cost-benefit reasoning remains important, perceptions were strongly shaped by campus climate and forward-looking expectations. Perceived advantages of HE, even without completion, outweighed the value of credentials alone, suggesting a pragmatic evaluation. We suggest anticipatory resilience as a lens for understanding students’ sustained valuations of HE amid uncertainty, grounded in anticipated benefits, institutional experience, and relational resources. Policy should prioritise campus climate, reduce financial strain, and reinforce the intrinsic value of HE.