GIS-INTEGRATED MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH FOR PREDICTING FUTURE OLIVE GROVE LAND USE PATTERNS

Over time, olive groves in rural Mediterranean regions have been increasingly influenced by land-use change processes driven primarily by economic dynamics. Turkey ranks as the fourth-largest olive-producing country worldwide, and the extent of olive groves has expanded considerably in recent years. Nevertheless, this expansion has largely occurred at the expense of agricultural lands, forest areas, and heterogeneous land-use patterns, resulting in the loss of natural vegetation and productive farmland. In this context, monitoring and forecasting the spatial expansion of olive groves is essential for ensuring sustainable land management and informed planning strategies. In this study, land-use changes between 2000 and 2018 were analyzed using an integrated Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) modeling framework, and future land-use patterns were projected for 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2050. Model validation produced a Kappa coefficient of 94.8%, indicating a high level of agreement, with only a 0.94% discrepancy between the simulated and the observed 2018 land-use maps. The findings demonstrate substantial transitions from agricultural lands, forest areas, and heterogeneous land-use classes to olive groves, suggesting a tendency among farmers to convert environmentally suitable areas into olive cultivation. According to the model projections, olive grove areas are expected to increase from 2,949.6 km² to 4,361.2 km² by 2050. Furthermore, changes in olive grove distribution are anticipated in 28 districts, five of which are projected to include olive groves as early as 2025.