From Peaceful Activism to Insurgency: The Militarization of the Amhara Fano in Post-2018 Ethiopia

Abstract In 2016, the Amhara Fano movement emerged as a peaceful activist network with the stated goal of defending the Amhara against injustices attributed to the Ethiopian state. Although the Fano contributed to the 2018 political change and initially aligned itself with the transitional leaders, it eventually transformed into an armed insurgency. This article examines the political conditions and processes behind the transformation through interviews, media analysis and document review. The findings indicate that the 2018 transition generated expectations among Amhara nationalists that longstanding grievances concerning territorial claims, political marginalization and security would be addressed. However, unmet promises, the Pretoria Agreement that ended the Tigray conflict, and state-led disarmament campaigns targeting Amhara security structures strained relations between the state and the Amhara Fano. Expanding political opportunities enabled the Fano to recruit fighters, accumulate weapons, expand social networks, and strengthen organizational capacity. Yet subsequent political constraints reinforced existential threat narratives that justified increasingly militarized repertoires of contention among Fano actors. The article contributes to broader social movement scholarship by highlighting how the failure to accommodate ethno-nationalist demands can transform contentious collective action into sustained armed resistance during fragile political transitions.