The Weather Forecast Problem in Fluid Dynamics

This paper investigates the weather forecast problem in fluid dynamics through the lensof an Integral State-Dependent Coefficient Matrix (ISDCM) framework, resolving the persistent computational bottlenecks of classical numerical weather prediction (NWP). Traditionalatmospheric models rely on split-step approximations and explicit time-stepping schemesthat introduce severe numerical latency, truncation errors, and high energy drift over longforecast horizons. By re-engineering the non-linear primitive equations—derived from theNCAR WRF-ARW core—into an autonomous semilinear matrix structure (d⃗Ψdt = A(⃗Ψ)⃗Ψ),this study eliminates split-step delays and allows complex fluid cross-coupling physics toupdate concurrently. Evaluated over a 30-day forecasting horizon on standard consumerhardware, the ISDCMS pipeline successfully demonstrates stable phase-space trajectory convergence, achieving robust root mean square error (RMSE) metrics across core atmosphericvariables (such as a barometric column mass RMSE of 1.149 hPa and thermodynamic temperature RMSE of 1.848◦C), thereby establishing a lightweight, highly stable architecturefor fluid dynamic simulation

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22225093
Primary Topic
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Type
article
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The Weather Forecast Problem in Fluid Dynamics

Sagar Kapadia
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
article

The Weather Forecast Problem in Fluid Dynamics

Sagar Kapadia
article en

Abstract

This paper investigates the weather forecast problem in fluid dynamics through the lensof an Integral State-Dependent Coefficient Matrix (ISDCM) framework, resolving the persistent computational bottlenecks of classical numerical weather prediction (NWP). Traditionalatmospheric models rely on split-step approximations and explicit time-stepping schemesthat introduce severe numerical latency, truncation errors, and high energy drift over longforecast horizons. By re-engineering the non-linear primitive equations—derived from theNCAR WRF-ARW core—into an autonomous semilinear matrix structure (d⃗Ψdt = A(⃗Ψ)⃗Ψ),this study eliminates split-step delays and allows complex fluid cross-coupling physics toupdate concurrently. Evaluated over a 30-day forecasting horizon on standard consumerhardware, the ISDCMS pipeline successfully demonstrates stable phase-space trajectory convergence, achieving robust root mean square error (RMSE) metrics across core atmosphericvariables (such as a barometric column mass RMSE of 1.149 hPa and thermodynamic temperature RMSE of 1.848◦C), thereby establishing a lightweight, highly stable architecturefor fluid dynamic simulation

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Openalex Percentile: Top 15%
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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The Weather Forecast Problem in Fluid Dynamics — Sagar Kapadia · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS