An exploratory traffic impact analysis in a knowledge-based urban development area: the HIDS/UNICAMP case study

The development of innovation districts imposes significant challenges on sustainable territorial planning, particularly with respect to mobility and transportation infrastructure. This study evaluates travel demand scenarios and traffic operational performance within the International Hub for Sustainable Development (HIDS), an innovation district currently under implementation in Campinas, Brazil. The analysis focuses on the Fazenda Argentina area, owned by the University of Campinas, which corresponds to the first implementation phase of the district and currently lacks consolidated urban occupation. Travel demand was estimated based on trip generation parameters derived from the literature and applied as input data for traffic microsimulations conducted using the Aimsun Next software. Multiple traffic flow scenarios were simulated to assess roadway capacity, Level of Service, and the operational performance of the main access corridors under different through traffic and roadway operating conditions. In addition to private vehicle demand, scenarios incorporating public transportation and active mobility were analyzed to evaluate their potential to reduce traffic volumes and improve operational conditions. The results identify critical demand thresholds that may compromise the performance of the roadway infrastructure and highlight the importance of sustainable mobility strategies in maintaining adequate service levels without major infrastructure expansions. In emerging and data-scarce urban contexts, exploratory scenario-based studies may also play an important role in supporting evidence-informed planning strategies and public policy decision-making during the early stages of large-scale urban developments. Thus, the study contributes to the literature by proposing a scenario-based approach to support mobility and infrastructure planning in innovation districts embedded in emerging Knowledge-Based Urban Development (KBUD) contexts, particularly in situations with limited availability of operational data.