Institutional capacity and investment outcomes in offshore wind energy markets

This study investigates why offshore wind energy (OWE) markets with comparable resource potential and policy ambition exhibit divergent investment outcomes. Drawing on State Capacity Theory, we construct four composite indices—the Policy Robustness Index, Investment Disengagement Index, Composite Risk Score, and Future Outlook Sentiment Index—that are synthesized into an Investment Outlook Score. The analysis covers nine major OWE markets using standardized multi-year data (2018–2024). Principal component analysis confirms structural coherence, with the first component explaining 87.2% of total variance. Hierarchical clustering identifies three governance archetypes: resilient (China, United Kingdom, Netherlands), transitional (United States, Japan, South Korea), and constrained (Germany, India, Spain). The findings suggest that policy ambition alone is insufficient; sustained investment appears to require coordinated risk absorption, infrastructure readiness, and adaptive institutional capacity. The framework provides policymakers with a diagnostic tool to distinguish temporary market stress from structural governance constraints, though the cross-sectional scope and composite-index methodology limit causal inference.