Institutional uncertainty, household anticipation, and housing asset repricing: evidence from Beijing’s school-access reform

We study how uncertainty about school-access rights affects housing demand and asset values. Using Beijing resale records, we exploit Xicheng District’s July 2020 reform, which ended deterministic school assignment through home purchase, together with an earlier policy signal in March 2017. We document a two-stage response: transaction volume rose after the signal, consistent with anticipatory purchase timing, and the price premium rose gradually, consistent with households accelerating purchases to secure rights under the old rules; after implementation, listing prices declined by about 1.6%, with same-signed transaction-price evidence in the shorter disclosure window, and liquidity weakened. The results suggest that certainty about school access is capitalized into housing values and that households respond before rules formally change.