Which livelihood capital matters most? Prioritizing drought resilience drivers for rural food security using the sustainable livelihood framework

Droughts have severely affected rural livelihoods in Iran and endangered food security. Kermanshah Province, despite its high agricultural potential, faces alarming food insecurity levels. This study prioritized five livelihood capitals human, social, natural, physical, and financial in food resilience under drought using the sustainable livelihood framework. A survey of 380 rural household heads in Kermanshah was analyzed using PLS-SEM. Results showed that 65.8% of households were food insecure, more than double the national average, while all livelihood capitals except human capital were critically low. Financial capital had the greatest impact on food resilience (β = 0.345), followed by social (β = 0.234), human (β = 0.162), natural (β = 0.145), and physical capital (β = 0.123), collectively explaining 63.9% of the variance. The novelty of this research lies in three dimensions: (i) providing a quantitative, evidence-based prioritization of livelihood capitals using standardized coefficients rather than qualitative rankings; (ii) adopting a parsimonious PLS-SEM model to ensure practical applicability for policymakers in crisis conditions; and (iii) offering locally operationalized indicators tailored to Kermanshah's specific socio-economic and ecological context, where no prior quantitative SLF-based prioritization study has been conducted. Policy recommendations emphasize financial empowerment (e.g., microcredit funds, index-based insurance, marketing cooperatives) complemented by targeted training that links education with financial support. However, these recommendations are context-specific and should not be generalized to other regions without considering local ecological, economic, and cultural conditions.