Elevation and Vegetation Greenness Structure Post-Hurricane Resilience and Local Persistence of the Puerto Rican Emerald (Riccordia maugaeus)

Tropical cyclones can rapidly alter vegetation structure and resource availability in Caribbean island ecosystems, yet species-specific, island-wide assessments of avian resilience remain limited. We integrated remotely sensed vegetation greenness, topographic data, and citizen-science observations to evaluate post-hurricane resilience in the Puerto Rican Emerald (Riccordia maugaeus), an endemic hummingbird of Puerto Rico. We defined resilience through post-disturbance decline, recovery toward baseline reporting probability, and local persistence. We analyzed 89,682 filtered eBird checklists from 2013 to 2025 across three hurricane-related periods: Pre-Maria, Inter-Hurricanes, and Post-Fiona. Landsat 8-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission elevation data were linked to checklist locations to quantify environmental gradients associated with reporting probability and occupancy dynamics. Binomial generalized linear models showed that reporting probability was strongly associated with elevation, NDVI, sampling effort, and a Period × Elevation interaction. Predicted reporting probabilities were lowest during the Inter-Hurricanes period and were closer to Pre-Maria levels in the Post-Fiona period, particularly at higher elevations. Dynamic multi-season occupancy models showed that initial occupancy increased with elevation and NDVI, whereas local extinction probability decreased with both elevation and NDVI. These findings indicate that post-hurricane reporting probability and local persistence in the Puerto Rican Emerald were associated with elevation and vegetation condition, with higher-elevation and greener sites representing candidate areas for monitoring and potential conservation action.