Simulating the effects of an alcohol minimum unit price policy on distilled spirits sales in 28 states of the USA

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Excessive alcohol use is a leading preventable chronic disease risk factor. Alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) policies are not used in the United States despite evidence of associations with reduced drinking and alcohol-related harms. To inform potential population-level chronic disease prevention strategies, we estimated effects of various hypothetical MUPs on alcohol sales. METHOD: Simulation based on observational time-series data. We used weekly off-premises product-specific alcohol retail sales and prices in 28 states of the United States for November 2022-November 2023 from NielsenIQ to estimate the own-price elasticity of spirits and cross-price elasticities of wine, beer and ready-to-drinks with respect to spirits. Using estimated elasticities, we simulated changes in total alcohol sales associated with hypothetical spirits MUPs ranging from $0.10 to $1.10 per standard drink (0.6 fluid ounces of alcohol). RESULTS: A hypothetical MUP of $0.80 per standard drink on spirits yielded the largest estimated decrease in alcohol sales (-1.7%) and would affect 5374 of 26 249 spirits products. To reach the $0.80 MUP, the sales-weighted average price increase among affected products was $0.24 per drink. CONCLUSIONS: Minimum unit pricing policies on distilled spirits in the United States could shift purchasing behavior and help reduce alcohol-related harms.