The Anchor Trap and the Absorptive Capacity: Divergent Paths of University-Induced Economic Growth in Core and Peripheral European Regions by PLS-SEM Analysis

As universities transition beyond their traditional Third Mission, they increasingly participate in complex, Quintuple and N-tuple helix open innovation ecosystems, balancing technology commercialization with pressing sustainability demands. This study investigates 301 universities within the European Economic Area (EEA) to analyze how academic innovation outputs (Horizon 2020 participation, patents, spin-offs) and multi-dimensional sustainability profiles relate to regional economic and labor market outcomes. Utilizing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), the empirical results demonstrate that while regional scientific and human capital exhibits a strong positive association with regional GDP and employment, a direct conversion of technological innovation outputs into economic growth is absent at the aggregate level, potentially pointing to a “Regional Innovation Paradox”. Furthermore, environmental sustainability performance is positively linked to innovation capacity, whereas social sustainability outcomes appear structurally decoupled in the short run. Finally, Multi-Group Analysis (MGA) reveals critical spatial asymmetries; the economic returns of academic excellence are concentrated in high-density metropolitan hubs with robust absorptive capacity, whereas in low-density peripheral regions, universities primarily stabilize local economies by functioning as critical anchor institutions.