Airline Pricing Dynamics on Thin Routes from a Central European Regional Airport: A 30-Day Case Study

Regional airports in post-EU accession Central Europe operate under demand conditions that differ substantially from those of major hubs, yet revenue management in these thin markets remains underexplored. This study examines whether temporal fare escalation observed on high-frequency routes also occurs for low-frequency regional services and whether carriers apply different pricing strategies on overlapping routes. Daily one-way fares were tracked on three routes from Košice International Airport, Slovakia, to the United Kingdom (Dublin, London Luton, and London Stansted) between 4 January and 2 February 2025, yielding 1738 observations across direct and connecting itineraries via Liverpool. Statistical analyses included paired t-tests, OLS regression with Newey–West standard errors and collection-session-clustered robustness checks, bootstrap inference for coefficient-of-variation ratios (10,000 resamples), Holm–Bonferroni correction, and log-transformation robustness checks. Four of six route–flight type combinations exhibited significant temporal fare escalation after multiple-testing correction. Wizz Air’s Luton service showed substantially greater fare variability than Ryanair’s Stansted service (coefficient of variation of 77.5% vs. 31.3%; bootstrap 95% CI for the ratio [1.29, 10.32]), despite similar mean fares. Connecting fares via Liverpool averaged 171% above direct Dublin fares, while daily prices on the London routes were strongly correlated (r = 0.816). These results reveal carrier-specific algorithmic pricing differences in thin regional markets with implications for consumer decision-making and for the affordability dimension of regional connectivity.