Interconnections Between Land Cover Change and Livelihoods Among Forest-Adjacent Populations: The Case of Mau Forest Complex, Kenya

Land cover is a key environmental variable that shapes ecosystem services and local sustainability. This study analyzes spatiotemporal patterns of land use and land cover (LULC) change in the four counties encompassing the Mau Forest Complex in southwest Kenya and examines how these changes affect forest-adjacent livelihoods. Using remotely sensed LULC data, stratified household surveys, key informant interviews, and county-level statistics, we assess in this study how perceptions of LULC impacts vary across demographic and socioeconomic groups. Ordinal logistic regression reveals significant county-level differences in LULC trajectories and perceived livelihood effects, with age and education positively associated with perceiving impacts, and income and land tenure security negatively associated. These findings highlight how local understandings of landscape dynamics are shaped by social heterogeneity. Integrating community perspectives into studies of LULC change is vital for designing equitable strategies to mitigate adverse land cover change impacts and build livelihood resilience in forest-margin contexts.