Hidden multi-state structure versus the piecewise-Poisson flare rate on 50 years of GOES/XRS solar flares
{"Paper":[0],"F":[1],"of":[2,6,32,140,196,230,354,363,415,726],"the":[3,7,22,50,95,100,144,147,161,170,175,187,192,217,220,234,248,252,282,289,294,302,361,374,386,440,444,472,501,514,518,540,550,556,578,586,589,601,606,612,616,644,650,663,670,727,735,744],"Fenocosm":[4],"arm":[5],"Feno":[8,728],"program.":[9,729],"The":[10,30,200,338,406,477,489,618,656,730],"first":[11,387],"estimable":[12,64],"hidden-state":[13,65],"alternative":[14,66],"entered":[15,79],"against":[16,80,169,288,293,400,534],"solar":[17,33,51,418],"physics'":[18],"nonstationary-Poisson":[19],"incumbent,":[20],"on":[21,85,150,153,257,310,373,380,564,591,653],"full":[23],"~50-year":[24],"GOES/XRS":[25],"soft-X-ray":[26,407],"flare":[27,34,103,424],"record.":[28],"Abstract.":[29],"statistics":[31],"occurrence":[35],"have":[36],"a":[37,41,60,74,209,258,268,311,315,331,389,433,493,506,570,594,666],"mature":[38],"incumbent":[39,146],"description:":[40],"time-dependent":[42],"(nonstationary)":[43],"Poisson":[44,222],"process":[45],"whose":[46],"rate":[47,446],"varies":[48],"with":[49,54,73,301,439,605,632,722],"cycle":[52,401],"and":[53,88,99,105,110,123,131,134,158,166,173,183,237,241,326,347,377,479,558,610,635,662,683,703],"active-region":[55],"evolution,":[56],"usually":[57],"represented":[58],"by":[59,181,226,243,410,708,712],"piecewise-constant":[61,145],"rate.":[62],"No":[63],"—":[67,76,186,432,526],"an":[68,367,413],"exact":[69],"hierarchical":[70],"regime":[71],"filter":[72],"likelihood":[75],"has":[77,639],"been":[78,640],"it.":[81],"We":[82],"enter":[83],"one,":[84,121],"8,393":[86],"M1.0+":[87],"64,996":[89],"C1.0+":[90],"flares":[91,460],"(1975–2025,":[92],"era-stitched":[93],"from":[94,281,334,417],"NCEI":[96],"legacy":[97],"reports":[98],"GOES-R":[101],"L2":[102],"summary),":[104],"report":[106],"what":[107,111],"it":[108,112,263,484,691],"settles":[109],"does":[113],"not.":[114],"(i)":[115],"Several":[116],"latent":[117,445],"switching":[118],"layers":[119],"beat":[120],"decisively":[122],"at":[124,213,224,246,457],"fixed":[125],"parameter":[126,193,235,313],"count:":[127],"ΔBIC":[128,155,325],"+3,175":[129],"(M1.0)":[130],"+10,195":[132],"(C1.0),":[133],"+460":[135],"/":[136],"+1,436":[137],"nats":[138,185],"out":[139],"sample.":[141],"(ii)":[142],"Against":[143],"cascade":[148,218,579],"wins":[149],"parsimony,":[151],"not":[152,306,404,486,512],"fit:":[154],"is":[156,191,233,239,305,330,357,359,403,485,492,505,521,543,554,689,706,733],"+3,102":[157],"+6,172,":[159],"but":[160],"Bayesian-blocks":[162],"partition":[163],"carries":[164,278,692],"531":[165],"1,423":[167],"parameters":[168,376],"cascade's":[171],"four":[172],"fits":[174,575],"record":[176,284,527,535,740,745],"better":[177],"in":[178,318,549,576,743],"raw":[179],"likelihood,":[180],"+1,035":[182],"+3,876":[184],"entire":[188],"BIC":[189,245,256],"margin":[190,317,329,364,382,504],"penalty":[194,236],"net":[195],"that":[197,365,539,565],"deficit.":[198],"(iii)":[199],"specific":[201],"geometric":[202],"ladder":[203,542,664],"buys":[204],"no":[205,700],"descriptive":[206],"advantage":[207],"over":[208,508,513],"free":[210],"transition":[211],"matrix":[212],"these":[214],"sample":[215],"sizes:":[216],"leads":[219],"free-transition":[221,515],"HMM":[223,490,516],"M1.0":[225,503],"only":[227],"+119":[228,502],"BIC,":[229,353],"which":[231,355,537,577],"+117.8":[232],"+1.7":[238,356],"fit,":[240],"loses":[242,426],"−1,475":[244],"C1.0;":[247],"sealed":[249,551,603],"calibration":[250],"shows":[251],"axis":[253],"fires":[254],"+147":[255],"synthetic":[259],"no-hierarchy":[260],"world,":[261],"so":[262,422,500,686],"cannot":[264],"be":[265],"read":[266],"as":[267,385,443,624],"hierarchy":[269],"test.":[270],"(iv)":[271],"A":[272],"causal,":[273],"filter-only":[274],"24-hour":[275],"M-class":[276],"now-cast":[277],"real":[279],"skill":[280],"event":[283],"alone":[285],"(BSS":[286],"+0.589":[287],"training-period":[290],"climatology,":[291],"+0.338":[292],"verification":[295],"period's":[296],"own).":[297],"Stated":[298],"limitations,":[299],"carried":[300],"deposit.":[303],"There":[304],"one":[307],"uncertainty":[308],"interval":[309],"fitted":[312,322,375,562],"or":[314,370,647],"model-comparison":[316],"this":[319,560,687,739],"paper.":[320],"Every":[321],"ladder,":[323],"every":[324,327,381],"held-out":[328],"point":[332],"estimate":[333],"multi-start":[335],"numerical":[336],"optimisation.":[337],"paper's":[339,473,561,619],"discipline":[340,531],"about":[341,345],"bias":[342],"says":[343],"nothing":[344],"variance,":[346],"its":[348,480,633,693,697],"most":[349],"delicate":[350],"result":[351],"(+119":[352],"fit)":[358],"exactly":[360,470],"kind":[362],"needs":[366],"interval.":[368],"Profile-likelihood":[369],"parametric-bootstrap":[371],"intervals":[372,379],"paired":[378],"are":[383,482,622,660,681,720,741],"named":[384],"thing":[388],"referee":[390],"should":[391],"ask":[392],"for.":[393,488],"An":[394],"uncorrected,":[395],"same-shape-as-the-signal":[396],"systematic.":[397],"Detection":[398],"completeness":[399],"phase":[402],"quantified.":[405],"background":[408],"rises":[409],"more":[411],"than":[412,711],"order":[414],"magnitude":[416],"minimum":[419],"to":[420,546,642,648],"maximum,":[421],"above-background":[423],"identification":[425],"small":[427],"events":[428],"preferentially":[429],"near":[430],"maximum":[431],"cycle-phase":[434],"dependent":[435],"multiplicative":[436],"detection":[437],"efficiency":[438],"same":[441,602],"shape":[442],"being":[447],"fitted.":[448],"At":[449],"C1.0":[450],"(mean":[451],"3.56":[452],"flares/day,":[453],"tens":[454],"per":[455],"day":[456],"maximum)":[458],"overlapping":[459],"also":[461],"merge":[462],"into":[463],"single":[464],"catalogued":[465],"events.":[466],"Both":[467],"bite":[468],"hardest":[469],"where":[471],"largest":[474],"numbers":[475],"live.":[476],"systematic":[478],"sign":[481],"stated;":[483],"corrected":[487,753],"adversary":[491],"two-point":[494],"grid":[495,552],"(J":[496],"∈":[497],"{2,":[498],"4}),":[499],"lead":[507],"J":[509],"≤":[510],"4,":[511],"family;":[517],"extended-J":[519],"re-run":[520],"queued.":[522],"Correction":[523],"note":[524],"(2026-08-30)":[525],"v35.":[528],"§7's":[529],"estimability":[530],"was":[532,569,580],"written":[533],"v32,":[536],"reported":[538],"event-altitude":[541],"never":[544],"recovered":[545],"truth":[547],"anywhere":[548],"(\\"N*_recovery":[553],"above":[555],"grid\\"),":[557],"de-biased":[559],"multiplier":[563,614],"basis.":[566],"That":[567],"reading":[568],"model-misspecification":[571],"artifact:":[572],"v32":[573],"re-read":[574],"given":[581],"covariate":[582,609],"=":[583],"exposure":[584,592],"while":[585],"generator":[587],"built":[588],"world":[590],"×":[593],"hard-gated":[595],"activity":[596],"window.":[597],"Record":[598],"v35":[599],"refits":[600],"seeds":[604],"generator's":[607],"own":[608,694],"recovers":[611],"injected":[613],"inside":[615],"grid.":[617],"N*_recovery":[620],"statements":[621],"withdrawn":[623],"artifacts;":[625],"N*_selection":[626],"≈":[627],"800":[628],"stands":[629],"(now":[630],"quoted":[631],"interval);":[634],"§7.2's":[636],"de-biasing":[637],"paragraph":[638],"rewritten":[641],"use":[643],"observation-process-matched":[645],"calibration,":[646],"rest":[649],"floor":[651],"clearance":[652],"N":[654],"alone.":[655],"substantive":[657],"conclusions":[658],"(i)–(iv)":[659],"unaffected,":[661],"remains":[665],"model-selection":[667],"quantity":[668],"for":[669,738],"separate":[671],"reason":[672],"§6.5":[673],"gives.":[674],"Deposit":[675],"note.":[676],"All":[677],"seven":[678],"Feno-program":[679],"repositories":[680],"private":[682],"remain":[684],"private,":[685],"deposit":[688],"standalone:":[690],"reproduction":[695,736],"materials,":[696],"metadata":[698],"contains":[699],"repository":[701,713,732],"link,":[702],"sibling":[704],"work":[705],"referenced":[707],"DOI":[709],"rather":[710],"path.":[714],"Related":[715],"Zenodo":[716],"DOIs":[717,757],"cited":[718],"below":[719],"reserved":[721,756],"publication":[723],"pending.":[724],"Part":[725],"source":[731],"private;":[734],"materials":[737],"contained":[742],"itself.":[746],"Version":[747],"2":[748],"(2026-09-01):":[749],"reference-list":[750],"publication-status":[751],"notes":[752],"(the":[754],"program's":[755],"were":[758],"published":[759],"2026-08-31);":[760],"content":[761],"otherwise":[762],"unchanged.":[763]}
Authors
- Evan Tabak Atlas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7374-2338)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-08-31
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22180472
- Primary Topic
- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Type
- preprint