Multi-scenario zoning control of land use patterns for enhancing ecosystem services in a semi-arid city: A case study of Baicheng, China

Ecosystem services (ESs) underpin socioeconomic stability in ecologically fragile regions, where land-use change, climate change, and human activity place increasing pressure on ecosystem functioning. Baicheng City lies in a semi-arid–semi-humid transition region of northeastern China. We quantified windbreak and sand fixation, water conservation, carbon sequestration, and the Comprehensive Ecosystem Service Index (CESI) from 2000 to 2023 and examined their driving factors. Constraint-line analysis identified normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and fractional vegetation cover (FVC) thresholds in relation to CESI and delineated ecological security and restoration zones. The ecological security zone served as a common restriction layer in the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Three land-use scenarios were simulated for 2035: natural development (NDS), cropland protection (CPS), and ecological protection (EPS). Their conditional CESI responses were assessed with non-land inputs held at their 2023 levels. From 2000 to 2023, all three ESs and CESI generally increased, with precipitation, NDVI, and FVC emerging as the dominant explanatory factors. The NDVI and FVC thresholds were 0.30 and 0.71, respectively. The corresponding ecological security and restoration zones accounted for 26% and 74% of the study area. Mean CESI values under all three scenarios remained slightly below the 2023 baseline. CPS retained the highest mean CESI among the scenarios, EPS had the smallest area of CESI change, and NDS produced the broadest spatial redistribution and the lowest mean CESI. Unlike previous studies that apply either threshold analysis or scenario simulation separately, this study introduces a novel framework that couples empirically derived vegetation thresholds with PLUS-based scenario simulation to inform spatially differentiated land-use regulation. This approach provides a transferable methodology for linking historical ecosystem service assessment to future land-use planning in water-limited regions.