Patronal Politics and Putin’s Inner Circle: What to Expect from the Kremlin Elite Upon Putin’s Exit?

Part of a special issue on “Post-Putin Russia,” this paper argues patronal politics theory provides useful conceptual tools for thinking about how elites in Putin’s inner circle would respond to important succession scenarios in Russia. Explaining how subnetwork “hierarchy” and “separateness” can shape how likely groupings within a dominant patron’s network are to behave as distinct political actors when the dominant patron departs the political scene, it examines collective action problems faced in moments of succession. Drawing on comparative post-Soviet experience, one conclusion is that formal institutions could play surprisingly important roles in how informal post-Putin succession struggles play out.