Canadians' response to U.S. tariffs through identity : the role of economic uncertainty on anti-immigration sentiment

While the most recent global U.S. tariffs have significantly impacted the economic stability of Canada and its relationship with the United States, the repercussions on Canadians’ political opinions remains unknown. In this thesis, I explore the relationship between economic uncertainty associated with tariffs in Canada and feelings towards both immigrant communities and the United States. Using data from 2021 and 2025 of the Canadian Election Study, and difference-in-difference models, I show that workers in industries dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian Exports (IDUSCEXs) are more skeptical about both immigrants’ place in Canadian society, and concerned that immigrants pose a risk to job availability. For feelings towards the United States, contrary to expectations, IDUSCEXs workers want greater interconnectedness between the U.S. and Canada. The same results hold for a case-study of areas with automotive manufacturing, revealing how communities with concentrated industries are impacted by tariffs. However, general areas surrounding tariff-affected industries do not share these same trends, suggesting that the greatest effect comes from individual employment over place of residence. These results primarily show how feelings toward immigrants are sensitive to economic outlook in Canada. Drawing from social identity theory, this is understood as a result of identity protection under feelings of threat, suggesting that Canadians became more concerned about who counts as a ‘true Canadian’ under the influence of tariffs. The reverse effect for closeness to the United States demonstrates that the U.S. is not seen as an out-group by exposed workers, but rather as a pathway towards restoring economic stability. In an exploratory analysis of vote choice, I find that workers impacted by tariffs voted with higher frequency for the Conservative Party of Canada in the 2025 federal election. This association of voting for the Conservatives with those most impacted by U.S. tariffs follows the literature on manufacturing decline in the United States by showing a rightward shift among disaffected workers.