Weather shocks and repeat tourists: evidence from foreign-issued payment card data

Climate change is increasingly altering the climatic conditions that support summer tourism in warm-weather destinations. This paper examines how the weather experienced during tourists’ stays relates to repeat-visit decisions. Using anonymized transaction data from foreign-issued payment cards during the peak summer months of 2022 and 2023 in Spain, we reconstruct 2022 summer card-level observed mobility across municipalities and days, link it to daily local weather conditions, and estimate the probability of same-card next-summer reappearance as a function of experienced temperatures and their deviations from historical norms. We interpret this same-card reappearance as a proxy for repeat visitation. Results reveal a robust inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and repetition: moderately warm conditions are associated with higher repeat probabilities, whereas excessive heat is associated with lower probabilities. We also document heterogeneity across destination types and origin climates: coastal and non-urban destinations appear more resilient to moderate heat anomalies, while cardholders from colder countries show stronger repeat-visit responses to such conditions; however, these differences disappear under extreme heat. By framing experienced weather as part of realized travelers’ utility, the paper links thermal comfort theory to repeat visits and behavioral responses to weather shocks, with implications for climate adaptation and destination management.