Predicting next-generation farming succession intentions in northwestern Ethiopia using the theory of planned behavior and structural equation modeling

Ensuring intergenerational farm succession is essential for sustaining smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia, where family farming remains the primary source of rural livelihoods. Although previous studies have mainly emphasized structural factors such as land access, farm size, and profitability, limited empirical evidence exists on the behavioral factors influencing rural youths’ intention to succeed family farms, particularly in Ethiopia. This study therefore examined the determinants of farm succession intention among rural youth in Sinan District, Amhara Region, northwestern Ethiopia, using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The study included rural youth aged 18–35 years, with the lower age limit of 18 years selected to avoid the ethical and procedural requirements for minors and to align with the African Union’s youth definition. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 370 potential farm successors selected through a multistage sampling technique. Data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The results showed that the TPB explained 37.4% of the variance in farm succession intention (R² = 0.374). Perceived behavioral control was the strongest predictor of farm succession intention (β = 0.310, t = 6.687), followed by subjective norms (β = 0.268, t = 5.091) and attitude (β = 0.195, t = 3.955), with all relationships statistically significant ( p < 0.001). The findings demonstrate that rural youths are more likely to intend to continue family farming when they perceive themselves as capable of farming successfully, receive support from family and community members, and hold favorable attitudes toward agriculture. The study extends the application of the TPB to farm succession in the Ethiopian smallholder context and provides evidence to inform policies that strengthen youth access to land, agricultural finance, practical training, extension services, and family-based succession planning to improve generational renewal in agriculture.