Current burden, incidence trends, and future projections of pancreatic cancer in adults worldwide

Background: Adult pancreatic cancer has a high mortality burden and poor survival. This study aimed to assess the current burden, geographic and socioeconomic differences, past incidence trends, and future burden. Methods: Publicly available data were obtained from the Global Cancer Observatory 2022 (GLOBOCAN 2022), Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus (CI5plus), the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD), Human Development Reports, the United Nations M49 classification, and World Population Prospects 2024. Adults aged 20 years and older were included. GLOBOCAN 2022 was used to estimate the disease burden in 2022. National Human Development Index values were correlated with age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) using Spearman correlation analysis. CI5plus data from 2000 to 2017 were used to assess sex-specific incidence trends using estimated annual percentage change. GBD data and World Population Prospects 2024 were used to project future burden from 2024 to 2045 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results: In 2022, there were 510,529 new cases and 467,290 deaths from pancreatic cancer worldwide among adults. Eastern Asia recorded the largest numbers of new cases and deaths. Western Europe had the highest ASIR and ASMR, while South Central Asia had the lowest. Countries with a very high Human Development Index (HDI) had the greatest burden, whereas those with a low HDI had the lowest. Adults aged 60-74 years accounted for the largest numbers of new cases and deaths. National Human Development Index was associated with ASIR and ASMR. Incidence trends from 2000 to 2017 varied across cancer registries and by sex. Projections showed increasing new cases and deaths from 2024 to 2045. Conclusions: Adult pancreatic cancer remains a major global health burden. The burden is projected to continue increasing. These findings may be useful for adult pancreatic cancer prevention in different regions.