Avalanche susceptibility mapping and event scale meteorological analysis of the Mana Village avalanche

Abstract Increasingly frequent due to steep terrains, snow accumulation, changing climate and anthropogenic conditions, avalanches threaten high-altitude villages of the Indian Himalayas. Using geospatial techniques and event-scale meteorological data analysis, this study explores potential avalanche release area and short-term triggering conditions at Mana Village in Uttarakhand. The requirement for susceptibility-based assessment and mitigation strategies is indicated by an avalanche event on February 28, 2025, which resulted in loss of life and infrastructure damage. Analyses of major avalanche-related parameters, such as air temperature, snow depth, snowfall, and radiative temperature changes, were analysed to characterize short-term meterological conditions associated with snowpack preconditioning. The parameters show a consistent increase during February and a sharp spike after February 25, indicating short-term atmospheric and snowpack conditions that may have contributed to snowpack preconditioning. Highly susceptible zones were demarcated using Object-Based Image Segmentation (OBIS), demonstrating its utility for susceptibility mapping. The study highlights the combined influence of terrain characteristics and short-term meteorological variability on avalanche susceptibility and underscores the importance of real-time monitoring, early warning systems, and climate-resilient planning for reducing avalanche risk in the region.