The 2025 Southeast Asian extreme rainfall: role of anthropogenic climate change

Abstract In late November 2025, torrential rainfall amplified by Cyclone Senyar caused catastrophic flooding and over 1100 fatalities across northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand, where fitted extreme value distributions suggest local four‐day accumulated rainfall corresponded to 0.1% annual probability. Rapid event attribution analysis using convection‐permitting pseudo–global warming ensemble simulations indicates that anthropogenic warming since the 1850s enhanced four‐day rainfall by over 150mm. Future climates (2070s and 2090s) under SSP2‐4.5 (medium forcing middle of the road pathway) experience further amplification, with some local rates increasing by 21% for every degree of temperature rise, underscoring critical climate change risks.