Analysis of the Risk of Disruption to the Supply of Phosphate Rock

Phosphate rock is an irreplaceable resource for the production of fertilisers, which are essential for global food security. Its extraction is highly concentrated in a limited number of countries and, together with rising demand and ongoing environmental challenges, creates a supply system vulnerable to geopolitical, regulatory, and logistical disruptions. This study aims to identify the most effective methodology for assessing the risk of a severe disruption in the global phosphate rock supply chain. To this end, three approaches are compared: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) criterion. The methodology defines the “top event” as a prolonged disruption to the global supply, which is then decomposed into geological, economic, geopolitical, regulatory, and logistical failure scenarios. The findings indicate that the primary risk does not stem from the geological availability of phosphate rock itself, but rather from the aforementioned external factors, particularly environmental regulation. In this context, the concentration of production in only a few countries acts as a significant amplifier of systemic vulnerabilities. From a methodological standpoint, the integration of FMEA, FTA, and ALARP provides a more robust and comprehensive framework by combining quantitative assessment, causal analysis, and risk prioritisation. This integrated approach therefore constitutes an effective methodology for evaluating complex risks associated with critical minerals.