Interrupted Time Series Modelling of Gender Gap Index in Africa

Gender inequality remains a persistent structural challenge globally and across Africa, despite sustained policy commitments at national, regional, and continental levels. This study employed a retrospective Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) to assess trends in gender equality outcomes before and after the adoption of Agenda 2063 in 2013, the African Union’s long-term development framework for Africa’s transformation. Using World Economic Forum Gender Gap Index (GGI) data from 2006 to 2025, segmented regression models were applied to five African countries selected across regions based on the magnitude of change in gender equality over time. The intervention point was defined as 2013, coinciding with the formal adoption of Agenda 2063. Results indicate a general upward trajectory in gender equality across all the countries prior to the intervention with significance observed in Burkina Faso (b 1 = 0.0086, t=4.314, p = 0.0005, 95% CI: 0.004 – 0.013) and Egypt (b 1 = 0.0031, t=2.501, p = 0.0236, 95% CI: 0.001 – 0.006). Post-intervention effects, however, varied substantially. In Chad, there was evidence of immediate increase in closed gender gap (b 2 = 0.0302, t = 2.982, p = 0.0088, 95% CI: 0.009 – 0.052) while Ethiopia and Namibia exhibited positive long-term gains in gender equality relative to counterfactual trends, though non-significant at α = 0.05. Sustained post-intervention reduction was observed in Burkina Faso and Egypt, with significance only in Burkina Faso (b 3 = -0.0071, t = -3.316, p = 0.004, 95% CI: -0.012 – -0.003). Counterfactual analysis suggested that, by 2025, Agenda 2063 may have contributed to improvements in the Gender Gap Index ranging from 5.9% to 8.7% in Ethiopia and Namibia. On the other hand, counterfactuals for Burkina Faso, Chad and Egypt depicted better performance by between 0.17% and 11.9%, with the best performance observed in Burkina Faso, which is unusual and could be attributed to other external factors. The models for all the countries were significant (p < 0.05) and fitted well (R 2 >0.81). These findings provide empirical evidence that continental policy frameworks can contribute to improved gender equality outcomes, though effects are heterogeneous, context-dependent and gradual. The study underscores the importance of sustained implementation, national-level policy alignment, and complementary institutional reforms to translate high-level commitments into tangible gender equality gains.