From Search Engines to Answer Engines: Sizing the Shift to Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) and Agentic Distribution in Online Travel (2026-2028)

This white paper examines how online travel distribution is shifting from conventional search interfaces toward generative answers and trackable AI-agent handoffs. It reconstructs the Russian booking market, models the SEO component of demand, distinguishes GEO from AI referral and direct integration, and estimates the paid agent-attributed travel market over Q4 2026-Q1 2028. The research uses public market disclosures, platform disclosures, company publications and transparent scenario calculations. The central model estimates USD 325.8m of paid agent-attributed GMV over six quarters, with a USD 149.5m-624.6m scenario range. The estimate is a channel TAM, not an issuer forecast or a company revenue forecast. Evidence is strongest for air and rail scale and weakest for addressable hotel GMV, platform routing and connector retention.