China's carbon quotas and surplus: A research framework coupling resources and rights

Carbon emission externalities have led to imbalances between the benefits of regional development and the distribution of global environmental costs. To allocate climate responsibility more equitably, it is essential to design carbon emission rights allocation schemes that balance overall efficiency and equity. Based on the fundamental premise that resources drive urban development—and that urban carbon quotas (also referred to as development rights) should be based on an assessment of a city's local resource stock to fully realize its development potential—this study develops a theoretical framework for the allocation and reallocation of carbon emission rights. Using data from 283 Chinese cities as a case study, carbon surplus and deficit zones were identified to reveal the gap between carbon quotas and observed carbon emissions. First, cities in eastern China, including provincial capitals and municipalities, exhibited larger economic scales and higher levels of population agglomeration. In contrast, high-value carbon balance zones were concentrated in the northeastern and southwestern regions, thereby resulting in spatial segregation between major urban development zones and ecological protection zones. Second, natural resources were scarce in North and Northwest China but abundant in Northeast and Southwest China, whereas human and capital resources were predominantly concentrated in the southeastern coastal areas. Third, under the 11 national carbon budget scenarios, cities in Northeast China, Southwest China, and several large cities contributed varying degrees of carbon surplus. In contrast, several cities in North and Northwest China showed carbon deficits, thereby requiring compensation for excess carbon emissions. Developing differentiated urban development strategies tailored to city characteristics and resource endowments is critical for facilitating low-carbon urbanization and reducing regional carbon inequality.