Middle-power rivalries and their impact on conflict dynamics in Libya: A decade of fragmentation and regional contestation (2014–2024)

Libya’s fragmentation since Gaddafi’s fall in 2011 created a legitimacy vacuum that fuelled political instability and enabled rival factions to claim authority without an institutional foundation. The 2014 elections deepened these divisions, producing competing administrations and turning Libya into an arena of regional and international competition. Although great powers were involved, middle powers such as Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Egypt directly shaped Libya’s conflict dynamics, with the UAE and Egypt backing Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) and Türkiye and Qatar supporting the United Nations (UN)-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Apart from ideology, their rivalries are driven by strategic interests, economic ambitions and competing governance visions. This study employs a qualitative design based on an analysis of UN Panel of Experts reports (2014–2024) and semi-structured interviews with experts and practitioners. Drawing on both sources, it examines how the rivalries and intervention strategies of Egypt, Türkiye, Qatar, and the UAE shaped the conflict dynamics in Libya. It argues that middle-power competition significantly influenced Libya’s conflict trajectory between 2014 and 2024, altering the military balance, political alignments, and patterns of conflict escalation and de-escalation. The findings show that foreign interventions contributed to the regionalisation of the conflict and shaped Libya’s political and military landscape, clarifying how middle-power rivalries shape North African conflict dynamics.