On the Reciprocal Structure of Adolescent Substance use and Delinquency - Results of a German Longitudinal Study

Abstract In recent years, studies have demonstrated a close relationship between substance use and delinquency among young people. However, the dynamics and directional structure of this relationship have long remained unclear. Studies in the United States suggest bidirectional effects between these behaviors, but comparable evidence from Germany is lacking. This study analyzes five waves of data from the Crime in the Modern City (CrimoC) project, covering the years 2003 (age 14) to 2007 (age 18), to examine associations between substance use and delinquency. Alcohol and marijuana use are analyzed separately, as are violent and general delinquency. It is assumed that early heavy alcohol consumption increases the risk of violent behavior, but not marijuana use. Furthermore, we expect substance use and general delinquency to be reciprocally related during adolescence. To examine potential effects at the individual level, a trivariate random intercept cross-lagged panel model is employed. The findings indicate a predominantly unidirectional within-person association from heavy alcohol consumption to later violent delinquency. Contrary to our expectations, the results provide only limited support for a reciprocal relationship in general delinquency. As was the case for violence, heavy alcohol consumption emerges as a consistent predictor of general delinquent behavior.