When habit prevails: a causal test of policy feedback theory using a pension reform

Abstract Elderly voters are a growing, politically powerful electoral bloc, and their pensions often constitute the largest component of welfare state. We know that cuts can provoke electoral backlash, but it is less clear whether benefit expansions mobilize retirees. Some policy feedback theories predict increased participation following material gains, but recent evidence on policy expansions is mixed. While income and political participation appear correlated among the elderly, habit formation theory implies that older voters may be a least likely case for benefit expansion leading to mobilization. Leveraging a pension reform in Illinois that increased benefits by 36% for retirees, a regression discontinuity design on administrative data covering 93,000 public employees across twelve elections shows no turnout effect, even among low-income groups.