Violent conflicts and food insecurity coping strategies: evidence from Nigeria

The rising incidence of conflict has raised concerns regarding the socioeconomic outcomes of affected populations. This study investigates how violent conflict shapes food insecurity coping strategies among households in Nigeria. Using a spatially merged dataset that links a longitudinal High Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) with geocoded conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), we employ an instrumental variable (IV) approach to address potential endogeneity between conflict exposure and food insecurity. We instrument conflict with proximity to an international border and proximity to the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Our study shows that violent conflict significantly worsens household food insecurity and increases reliance on adverse food coping strategies. We further find that conflict significantly increases the likelihood of severe food insecurity among households. Urban residence, age of the household head, household employment, temperature, and precipitation are also significantly associated with food insecurity outcomes, highlighting the importance of socioeconomic, spatial, and environmental factors in shaping household vulnerability. Findings are robust across different measures of food insecurity and various sensitivity tests. Given the strong adverse effect of conflict on household food security and coping behaviour, addressing conflict-driven vulnerabilities is crucial for improving food security in affected regions.