Quantifying Public Support for Inland Wetland Conservation Through Dual-Scenario DC-CVM: Evidence from Qinghai Lake, China

This study estimates public willingness to pay for Qinghai Lake conservation and examines how stated support changes when a hypothetical valuation setting is followed by a simulated payment implementation setting. Using survey data from 580 prior tourists, the study applies a dual scenario dichotomous choice contingent valuation method to assess hypothetical bias, identify WTP determinants, and compare valuation patterns between residents and nonresident tourists. Mean annual household WTP declined from CNY 232.95 in the hypothetical setting to CNY 182.27 in the simulated payment implementation setting, a reduction of approximately 22%. Truncated mean estimates showed a similar decline, from CNY 230.40 to CNY 177.81. Logit results confirmed the internal validity of the valuation responses, as the bid amount was negatively associated with payment acceptance across all models. Education, income, perceived emotional value, conservation support, and sustainable intelligence were positively associated with WTP, whereas human oriented New Ecological Paradigm was negatively associated with payment support. Subgroup results further showed that nature-oriented NEP was significant among nonresident tourists but not among residents, suggesting that stakeholder position conditions the role of ecological worldview in conservation payment decisions. Given the non-probability sample of prior tourists, aggregate estimates are interpreted as sensitivity-based illustrations rather than definitive national welfare values. The findings provide conservative valuation evidence for wetland conservation financing and support differentiated communication strategies for residents and tourists.