Mediterranean Olive Systems Under Climate Change: Long-Term Production Dynamics, Market Vulnerability, and Ecological Functions

Climate-related production variability and increasing market uncertainty pose significant challenges for Mediterranean olive systems. This study examines the long-term production dynamics, market vulnerability, and ecological functions of Mediterranean olive systems under climate change through an integrated assessment combining statistical production analysis, descriptive economic analysis, and a structured ecological literature synthesis. Olive and olive oil production trends were analyzed for Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal using FAOSTAT data (1960–2020), together with European Commission statistics (2010/11–2021/22) on production, prices, and trade. The results reveal significant long-term production trends, with greater year-to-year fluctuations observed in several countries, particularly after 2010. These fluctuations may reflect the combined influence of climatic variability and structural changes affecting Mediterranean agricultural systems, although their relative contribution was beyond the scope of the present study. Despite maintaining a leading position in global olive oil production and trade, the European Union recorded a 52% increase in export volume and a 125% increase in export value, highlighting both market expansion and increasing exposure to international market dynamics. The ecological synthesis indicates that traditional and low-input olive groves provide important ecosystem functions, including biodiversity conservation, soil protection, water regulation, and soil-carbon maintenance, supporting the long-term sustainability of Mediterranean olive systems. Overall, the findings highlight the need for integrated adaptation strategies combining environmentally sound land management, value-chain coordination, and policy support to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Mediterranean olive systems.