Navigating the Blue Transition: A Dynamic Simulation of the Coupling and Coordination in China’s Marine Fishery Ecological–Social–Economic System

The global ‘Blue Transition’ presents a critical policy dilemma for marine fisheries: how to achieve ecological sustainability and carbon neutrality while maintaining socio-economic vitality. This study addresses this challenge by analyzing the complex interplay between the ecological, social, and economic systems within China’s marine fisheries. Our research purpose is to identify effective governance pathways for a coordinated and sustainable transition. We developed a system dynamics model, informed by panel data from 2010–2022, to simulate the long-term outcomes of different policy scenarios. This approach allows us to move beyond static analysis and understand the dynamic feedback mechanisms that shape the fishery sector. Our analysis of historical data reveals that the overall system coordination improved initially but has since stagnated at a basic level. The most significant outcome of our simulations is the identification of the social system—encompassing technological innovation, governance, and human capital—as the central lever for progress. Our findings demonstrate that policies focused narrowly on either economic growth or ecological restoration are suboptimal. The optimal path to high-quality, sustainable development is an integrated strategy that prioritizes investment in the social system to mediate the conflict between economic and ecological goals. This provides a crucial insight for marine policy, suggesting that effective governance frameworks are the key enablers of a successful Blue Transition.