An approximately 70-year core-related modulation of Earth rotation and its implications for the leap second

Recent observations of Universal Time (UT1) indicate an acceleration in Earth’s rotation. If sustained under the current leap-second framework, this behavior could eventually prompt consideration of a negative leap second. We examine whether the recent acceleration is consistent with an approximately 70-year, core-related modulation of length of day (LOD). After removal of modeled tidal, surface-fluid, and secular contributions, residual LOD contains a near-70-year component, and a similar component is present in core angular momentum (CAM)-derived equivalent LOD inferred from geomagnetic observations. All harmonic, spectral, and LOD–CAM analyses reported here use the common 1883–2022 interval. Harmonic regression over trial periods of 50–100 yr gives periods of 69.7 yr for residual LOD and 71.8 yr for CAM-derived equivalent LOD, with amplitudes of 2.87 and 1.94 ms, respectively. Lomb–Scargle spectra show peaks near 67.8 and 70.5 yr. The annual series have a zero-lag correlation of 0.918. Their lagged correlation has a broad maximum for a CAM lead of approximately 1–3 yr, with a numerical maximum of 0.932 at 2 yr. Because both records are strongly autocorrelated, these coefficients are used to characterize their correspondence rather than to assess predictive significance. The results are consistent with a core-related contribution to low-frequency rotational variability, but they do not uniquely separate the contributions of electromagnetic, topographic, gravitational, and viscous core–mantle coupling mechanisms. Within the fitted model, the multidecadal component alone does not indicate sustained near-term shortening of the day that would, by itself, require a negative leap second. This is a model-dependent geophysical assessment, not an operational prediction of future UTC adjustments. Graphical abstract