R&D efficiency and capital market stability expectation: a survival analysis of IPO premium maintenance

Innovation achieves its ultimate significance when effectively materialized. In contrast to R&D inputs, R&D efficiency better reflects the technological outcomes of corporate innovation and profoundly influences investor expectations. IPO premium maintenance, a key indicator of sound market valuation, directly embodies these expectations. Employing a survival analysis model and distinguishing between technological innovation efficiency and technological commercialisation efficiency, this study investigates how R&D efficiency affects IPO premium maintenance. Results show that R&D efficiency significantly promotes premium maintenance through two mechanisms: technological innovation efficiency enhances core technological capabilities, while technological commercialisation efficiency improves market competitiveness. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that technological commercialisation efficiency exerts stronger effects in non-technology sectors or high R&D-intensive firms, whereas technological innovation efficiency dominates in technology sectors or low R&D-intensive firms. Further analysis indicates that negative shifts in R&D efficiency significantly contribute to post-IPO price declines. This study advances the understanding of R&D efficiency’s informational value.