Global economic burden of aortic aneurysm caused by high body-mass index and high systolic blood pressure in elder population

Introduction Aortic aneurysm is a high-fatality vascular condition whose burden is increasingly concentrated in ageing populations. We aimed to quantify the current and projected macroeconomic burden attributable to high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high body-mass index (BMI) in adults aged ≥ 60 years.Theory We translated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) into value of lost welfare (VLW) using an economic valuation framework. Risk attribution followed the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) comparative risk assessment framework.Method We analysed GBD 2021 data for 204 countries and territories by age, sex, socio-demographic index, and geography. Risk-attributable deaths and DALYs were valued using a purchasing-power-parity-adjusted value of a statistical life, and Bayesian age–period–cohort models were used to project burden to 2050.Results In 2021, SBP accounted for a substantially greater burden than BMI in adults aged 60 years and older, with 23,131 versus 9,476 deaths and 385,281 versus 164,396 DALYs. Total VLW reached $1,041.52 million globally, with SBP contributing about two-thirds of the loss. Despite declining age-standardised rates, absolute losses are projected to rise with population ageing.Discussion Aortic aneurysm remains a substantial macroeconomic burden in ageing societies. SBP appears to be the dominant modifiable driver, whereas obesity is a secondary and partly mediated contributor. These findings support blood-pressure control as the most actionable near-term strategy.