Methodology and Features of Constructing the Official Forecast of Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development

Abstract— The article examines the features of formulating the official socio‑economic development forecast prepared by Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development (SED). These features are related, among other things, to the forecast’s official status and its close integration into the budget process, which qualitatively distinguishes it from forecasts produced by other organizations. The key features include the rigid timeline for forecast preparation, regulatory limits on the number of possible scenarios, a substantially larger set of calculated indicators and the impossibility of their interval estimation, as well as a wide range of counterparties involved in the preparation process. The article also describes the specific methodology used to formulate the forecast. Based on a comparison of forecasted and actual indicator values, the conclusion is drawn that the forecast is relatively more accurate than those of other organizations not bound by strict regulatory constraints.