Federal Budget: Components of Sustainability

Abstract— The article analyzes the dynamics of the parameters of the Russian federal budget through the prism of its sustainability. It is shown that the reduction in the fiscal role of the oil and gas sector is accompanied by an increase in the tax burden on the domestic nonresource sector with limited growth in total revenues. At the same time, an expansion of expenditure and an increase in the share of nonoptimized obligations are observed, which reinforces the structural nature of the deficit. The combination of revenue base transformation, growth in fixed expenditure obligations, and accelerating debt dynamics leads to a narrowing of fiscal space and increased budget sensitivity to interest rate and cyclical risks. The authors of the article propose measures to reorient fiscal policy towards stimulating long-term growth in the civilian sector of the economy, even at the expense of current budget balance.