Safety Performance in Leeto La Polokwane Bus Rapid Transit System, South Africa

Sustainable public transport in South Africa has become a policy priority over the past few decades. Safety is recognised as a fundamental component of this agenda. In many cities, public transport systems are often characterised by poor safety standards, which undermine ridership and public confidence. In the City of Polokwane, despite the successful recent completion of the first phase of Leeto La Polokwane bus system, an Intelligent Transportation System designed for sustainable transport management, the safety performance of the system and its subsequent influence on travel behaviour remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by investigating the safety performance of the Leeto La Polokwane Phase 1A and its relationship with commuters’ sustainable travel mode choice. Commuter surveys (n = 344), field observations, and actual ridership data were used to collect data. Principal component analysis extracted two key factors (commuter safety and crime prevention), which together explained 63.14% of the total variance in commuters’ perceptions of safety. Commuters reported a neutral perception of commuter safety (mean = 4.03) and a negative perception of crime prevention (mean = 3.90). Multinomial logistic regression revealed that commuters’ perceptions of safety, particularly concerns related to crime prevention, were statistically significant predictors of sustainable travel mode choice. Multiple linear regression further showed that operational continuity and system maturation were positively associated with ridership growth, with operating days (β = 0.307, p = 0.044) and time in operation (β = 0.670, p < 0.001) emerging as significant predictors. Although taxi protests (β = −0.036, p = 0.804) and school holidays (β = −0.199, p = 0.181) were negatively correlated with ridership. The study concludes that safety is a critical determinant of sustainable public transport use that extends beyond the onboard environment to include the entire commuter journey. To improve public transport safety requires a holistic strategy that integrates safe pedestrian infrastructure, effective crime prevention, operational reliability, and strengthened institutional collaboration.